Mobile Computing, 4G Poised for Massive Growth Through 2012

ABI Research projects that WiMAX wireless communications will reach more than 1 billion people by the end of 2012, and that LTE will cover another 600 million by that time, marking a fast ramp up of the two technologies that fall into the "4G" category.

4G technology is focused entirely on the data transmission side of wireless communications, largely because the voice side is a mature technology. Whereas 3G has reached top speeds of 14 megabits per second on the downlink, that is rarely, if ever, achieved. In practice, 3G is lucky if it can hit one megabit per second.

4G, by contrast, can hit 100 megabits per second. The first vendor out of the gate is Clearwire, which offers speeds of three to six megabits in downlink speed per second, comparable to DSL and cable modems. Verizon Wireless, currently testing its 4G network, has reported initial speeds of 40 megabits per second on the downlink.

Thus far, only Clearwire and Verizon are rolling out their networks in the U.S. Clearwire uses WiMAX, since its major developer Intel is a primary backer of Clearwire, while Verizon is using Long-Term Evolution, or LTE. WiMAX is being deployed around the world, especially in developing countries.

At the end of 2009, ABI says there were more than 170 WiMAX carriers across 65 countries covering 480 million people. Pretty much all of them are using WiMAX for computing because there aren't handsets on the market, but that is set to change with the launch of WiMAX handsets from HTC and Samsung later this year.

LTE is also growing.

Twenty carriers will launch LTE upgrades to their networks by the fourth quarter of 2010. LTE coverage will start in large cities but rapidly expand to handle the increasing move to mobile computing. Verizon is currently building out its network and plans to offer 4G handsets in mid-2011.

AT&T and T-Mobile, also LTE licensees, plan to begin their build-out next year.

The question in all of this is how far will either protocol go. They are not necessarily in competition with each other, but given the lack of space in phones and power concerns, there's little room for a WiMAX, LTE and (for backward compatibility) a 3G chip.

"Some WiMAX service providers may switch from WiMAX to TD-LTE, but others are doing this partly as insurance and partly to assure investors of an alternate path so they may go forward with WiMAX. This is something for smaller greenfield service providers to consider. Large mobile operators will move forward with LTE whether it be on FDD or TDD spectrum. Clearwire can do both WiMAX and LTE if it wants to since it has the spectrum to do so," Philip Solis, practice director at ABI Research, said in a statement.

Clearwire was contractually obligated to use only WiMAX until 2012 at the request of Intel, a major supporter. However, earlier this month Intel changed the deal with Clearwire, giving it the option to switch to another protocolat any time with just 30 days notice. While Clearwire has not indicated it will jump to LTE just yet, the company seems ready to do so.

Andy Patrizio is a senior editor at InternetNews.com, the news service of Internet.com, the network for technology professionals.